Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 0.464639 0.541417 0.624269 0.720001 0.827238 0.943328 1.078165
2025-03-23 0.352707 0.452361 0.568016 0.710958 0.881596 1.077460 1.317888
2025-03-30 0.249874 0.354320 0.484939 0.657534 0.876581 1.142161 1.485015
2025-04-06 0.182321 0.286872 0.427915 0.626918 0.894644 1.236141 1.697575
2025-04-13 0.130507 0.229682 0.374582 0.593145 0.904621 1.321820 1.910290
2025-04-20 0.098994 0.194814 0.346124 0.589177 0.954315 1.465217 2.213491
2025-04-27 0.072972 0.162051 0.314730 0.576251 0.990251 1.594599 2.512039
2025-05-04 0.055368 0.138962 0.294298 0.577183 1.047321 1.760569 2.878563
2025-05-11 0.041386 0.118314 0.273730 0.574673 1.099140 1.924674 3.258280
2025-05-18 0.028115 0.093915 0.240361 0.544081 1.101459 2.013958 3.535442
2025-05-25 0.018143 0.072405 0.206744 0.506360 1.086239 2.073896 3.773153
2025-06-01 0.012637 0.059839 0.188782 0.495575 1.117323 2.212459 4.146674
2025-06-08 0.008272 0.048028 0.169526 0.479902 1.140686 2.346363 4.534411
2025-06-15 0.006092 0.042365 0.164246 0.494199 1.224771 2.595077 5.134596
2025-06-22 0.003665 0.032943 0.144773 0.471273 1.231131 2.706309 5.511787
2025-06-29 0.002282 0.026671 0.132019 0.461796 1.264407 2.870642 5.994916
2025-07-06 0.001321 0.021028 0.118469 0.446796 1.283546 3.010371 6.445661
2025-07-13 0.000858 0.018036 0.113149 0.453281 1.352217 3.252231 7.098063
2025-07-20 0.000505 0.014897 0.105430 0.450876 1.399970 3.457064 7.696649
2025-07-27 0.000312 0.012832 0.101262 0.458486 1.473280 3.720267 8.422131
2025-08-03 0.000179 0.010863 0.096254 0.462179 1.537556 3.970259 9.138300
2025-08-10 0.000074 0.008176 0.084999 0.441206 1.535403 4.079897 9.590664
2025-08-17 0.000023 0.005826 0.072991 0.413098 1.509433 4.135338 9.939833